Brave NEW World

... or, "all this too must pass" for muleboy ist movink to:

muleboy303-stephenhsmith

but before i go, i must say...

"Thank You

Hillary Rodham Clinton"

"... following in the footsteps of the past ten years of Madeleine Albright, Pat Schroeder, Geraldine Ferraro, Janet Reno, Condoleeza Rice, Harriett Miers, Janis Karpinski, Katherine's Harris and Blanco, Nancy Pelosi, and countless others... your Presidential campaign has proven beyond any doubt, that women can be just as ruthless, unethical, petty, corrupt, selfish, dishonest, barbaric, incompetent, devious, and arrogant, as any man or men who've ever lived. and if that is not "equality", i can't imagine what could be."

thankya again, bye-bye

.

everlasting regret

In late October 2006, I forced my daughter to go with me to see Gore Vidal and Maureen Dowd talk awhile at Austin's Paramount Theatre, while less than a mile away barricades were being moved and streets blocked off around the UT campus to accomodate the already growing crowd waiting to see and hear a Senator from Illinois who was going to run for President of the United States.

I was so excited at the opportunity for my daughter to personally experience the wit and wisdom of Vidal and Dowd, people who had over a century of combined experience observing, living, and chronicaling the American political scene, that I gave little thought to the nearby Senator who's main claim to fame then was that Oprah was crazy about him. I dismissed him as a fad along with some internal thoughts that would not be conducive to good race relations were they to be uttered aloud.

I was so wrong. I've learned so much since then. He ran under my political radar and has caused me to reassess my most basic assumptions about the people of this country, especially those younger than I.

And in an ironic twist of fate, by not taking my daughter to see/hear Barack Obama on that beautiful day in Austin in 2006, I replicated a non-experience of my Grandfather, who lamented for over five decades not taking advantage of his opportunity to make the short trip to Magnolia Arkansas in 1932 to see Huey Long speak to 30,000 people in support of Hattie Carraway's campaign.

I now know how he must have felt, for I too will regret for the rest of my life.

Her Exact Words

at 4:51...
"Um, You know, I remember very well what happened in the California primary in 1968 as Sen. Kennedy won that primary."
- Hillary Rodham Clinton 7 May 2008 in Shepherdstown, West Virginia

the full context quote:

"But I also think it's still early, I mean everybody is so focused on where we are right now, I, I, guess I remember in June of '92 that's when Bill really wrapped up the nomination, the middle of June after the California primary. Um, You know, I remember very well what happened in the California primary in 1968 as Sen. Kennedy won that primary. I mean, we traditionally have gone longer and there isn't any problem in closing ranks..."

first of all, "it's still early"?

secondly, many older Democrats, and some younger ones who've studied their history books, also "remember very well what happened in the California primary in 1968 as Sen. Kennedy won that primary."

Hillary could've cited the 1972 primaries (a campaign she had personal experience with) or those in 1976 or 1988, as examples to make her point.

She didn't. She used 1968's and mentioned Senator (Robert F.) Kennedy and "what happened" while doing so.

It was on purpose. The Clintons are well-schooled in the practice of using words very carefully. Within a dozen hours of Hillary's devastating loss in the North Carolina primary coupled with her pyrrhic victory in Indiana, as the chorus of talking heads proclaimed the race "over", Hillary sent a heavy handed message to the Democratic party Super-Delegates who have not yet publicly committed themselves to a candidate.

The message ? "Wait"!

Hold off on jumping on the Obama express for another few weeks, at least until the primary voting has concluded, ....

because ... um, ah, you never know WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN

UPDATE: apparently Senator Ted Kennedy heard Hillary. 48 hours later he said:

MR. HUNT: What's your view of an Obama-Clinton ticket?

SEN. KENNEDY: I don't think it's possible.

MR. HUNT: You don't. And what type of vice president choice do you think he should make? What type of person?

SEN. KENNEDY: Well, the first is always a demand that you're going to have someone that's going to be able to assume the responsibility. I would hope that he would also give consideration to somebody that has - is in tune with his appeal for the nobler aspirations of the American people. And I think if we had real leadership - as we do with Barack Obama - in the number-two spot as well, it'd be enormously helpful.

Kennedy Dismisses "Dream Ticket"

Hillary Clinton 7 May 2008

at 4:51...

"But I also think it's still early, I mean everybody is so focused on where we are right now, I, I, guess I remember in June of '92 that's when Bill really wrapped up the nomination, the middle of June after the California primary. Um, You know, I remember very well what happend in the California primary in 1968 as Sen. Kennedy won that primary. I mean, we traditionally have gone longer and there isn't any problem in closing ranks..."

Winning

For far too much of United States' history, Politicians and their supporters have sought to pit red against blue, white against black, and all against yellow and brown, in a most cynical and successful effort to make GREEN.
(not to mention what immigrants did to the natives)

It is time for a change. It is time for a new definition of "winning".

I submit that the new definition come from a line I heard Bruce Springsteen use many times when he was making a plea for contributions to the local food bank during his concerts...

"Remember, nobody wins unless everybody wins".

I thought it quaint and naive when I first heard it 25 years ago. Now that I am older, I understand.

Can it be done? No.

But there is no shame in trying. Indeed the only shame is in not trying.

Thy Name is Pyrrhus

Thy name is Pyrrhus

students of History can describe with a single word, the methods leading to losses sustained in gaining a victory that renders the achievement as worse than worthless. the word is "Pyrrhic".

students of modern American politics can also describe the same concept with one word, "Clinton".

the longer definition is "campaigning in such a way as to achieve electoral victory without regard to the consequences it has upon limiting the potential latitude for governing".

but being the President of the United States, circa 2009, will have far less need of consensus-building and adherence to the rule of law than previous Presidents, courtesy of the Bush-Cheney administration's "Unitary Executive" assertions/actions, the U.S. Federal courts, Congresses both Republican and Democratic controlled, and ultimately the American people.

therefore, the current Clinton candidate is unconcerned with returning to the standards and practices of the past, in Congressional oversight, consensus-building, and public opinion, because only a signature will define "the art of the possible" for the 44th POTUS. previewed by a quote attributed to the first President Clinton's aide Paul Begala in 1998 "Stroke of the Pen, Law of the Land. Kinda Cool".

thus, with so many things 'Clinton', apparently "the consent of the governed" is also subject to redefinition. for if the American people continue to work, buy things, and pay taxes, without resorting to strikes, civil-disobedience, or armed revolt, to the Clintons (and far too many other "public servants") that constitutes "consent".

in 2008, the American people are being given the opportunity to begin to turn away from the destructive politics inherent in the consolidation of power. it will be their choice, but it will not come as easy as by voting, writing a check, attending a rally, or wearing a button/t-shirt, for the forces that have benefitted so very much from the evolution of government power residing in fewer and fewer hands, will not give up without a very ugly fight, regardless of the costs. and they will have many minions of supplicants ready and eager to do battle for them in the vain and misguided assumption that it takes a candidate toughened and corrupted by experience to defeat another one.

only Time will tell if indeed the "times have changed" or if Pete Townshend's axiom "Meet the new Boss, Same as the old Boss" is more relevant and prophetic than ever.

meanwhile Pyrrhus is making his way toward the stage, just in case.

stephenhsmith
4May2008

"you don't understand"

one casualty/consequence of the rapid changes in US society over the past 50 years is quite possibly little understood, and as far as i know, little remarked upon. but the generation gap looming in 2008's POTUS contest might present the opportunity to change that. (pardon the pun)

a short list of societal changes in the US during the past 50 years:

rock n' roll
civil rights/race relations
the pill
the space race/ballistic missiles
vietnam, the draft
movie codes/practices
drug use (legal and illegal)
cable tv, videocassettes, cds, dvds
imported cars
roe vs wade
women in the workplace
aids
government/society relations
immigration/multi-culturalism
commercial/political religion
commecial/political "news" reporting
personal computers
the internet
cell phones

each new change created a rough delineation between the people who grew up before, during, and in the increasingly distant aftermath of the assimilation of the changes, many of which were simultaneous.

every age difference of more than twenty years, even just ten years, will span one or more of the comprehensive societal changes, therefore any discussion/argument between people with such age/experience differences will likely include the assertion or retort "you just don't understand". and when it is uttered, it will likely be grounded in truth.

because the experiences of those people old enough to remember what things were like before the change(s), renders them severely crippled when attempting to relate and interact with those who have only known the after effects. those to whom the new technologies and new standards/methods/values are all they have ever known, and are considered by them to be "normal", also are impaired when trying to imagine that so many things were 'different' before their own experience. even people who grew up in the same town, but more than 30 years apart, literally grew up in different countries.

the dissonance created by this 'experience gap' will manifest itself in countless ways during the next decade, especially between the oldest and youngest in society. the race for President in 2008 will be a watershed moment, largely defining the battleground.

to embark on a radically new path, embracing the priorities/methods/standards of the younger generations, while accelerating the discarding of the older ones. or to remain largely on the path of the past 50 years for a few years more.

either way, it is going to be a long and painful war.

stephenhsmith
25april2008

Wanted: Another Bill (with a key difference)

to reduce defense spending, re-emphasize diplomacy in foreign policy, reduce the national debt, more tax fairness, more inclusive of non-white/non-rich in policy making, and "focus like a laser-beam" on specific domestic issues (derisively called "small-ball" by the Bush administration)

one gets the impression that what the Democratic voters are looking for is another Bill Clinton, with one key difference. they desire a President like Bill Clinton, that they don't have to constantly worry about being embarassed by.

until the campaigns began in earnest, the common perception was that Hillary was that candidate, because she was perceived as being smart enough, tough enough, and assertive enough to offset lingering doubts about Bill's role in another term. but as the early campaign unfolded, those doubts multiplied to the point where the "unknown" candidate became the frontrunner because he sounded very much like Bill did in 1992 and had unprecedented character and discipline for a young Democrat with charisma.

then the "guilt by association" campaign began.
Obama hangs out with:
a sleazy businessman
a momentarily angry black preacher
an unrepentant vietnam war protester
people who look down their noses at the working class,
church-goers, and hunters
people who drink orange juice instead of coffee,
and can't bowl worth a damn.

to the older, whiter, less educated, and less affluent voters, the "old" politics that has worked in the past, still works (but thankfully, not as well as it used to)
but just as with the studio system in the movie industry decades ago and the current music industry, a new way of doing business (mostly due to new technology) is ascending while the old way is fighting hard and dirty to preserve it's power.

and the results will be similar because after decades of "top-down" (dare i say "elitist"?) decision-making by elders corrupted by too much "experience", the younger generations now have the means and the numbers to insist on a different method of consensus-building, from the "bottom (the people) up".

For the Record (Predictions) McCain's VP choice is...

John McCain has, according to Hillary Clinton, "a lifetime of experience he would bring to the Oval Office". Yet that "lifetime" consists of two distinct phases. the first is of a youth spent growing up in a military household, and then wearing the uniform himself. following in the footsteps (carved path?) of his father and grandfather (both Admirals in the U.S. Navy), McCain spent decades training to use, and using, military force.

afterwards, for the past quarter-century plus, McCain's public service has consisted of elected office in Washington D.C. where he has largely focused on "defense"/foreign policy issues when not working to solidify and perpetuate the upper-classes' monopoly on power.

for over five decades John McCain has focused almost entirely on training to use military force and deciding when and how to use that force. it is almost literally, all he knows.

therefore, in my opinion, McCain will be consistent when the time comes later this year to make his first "Presidential-level" decision, the choice of a running-mate for Vice-President. a selection that will be most revealing of his character and priorities, and will have a far-reaching impact on the election and the future of the GOP beyond.

i will be most surprised if McCain does not select Rudy Giuliani for VP.

8 Lifetimes

if a week is a "lifetime" in Politics, then using the GOP in 2008 as an example, just 8 weeks ago large chunks of the Republican base voters, and many prominent spokespersons were lamenting 'the death of the GOP' and wailing utterly. whereas now they are muted and more unified by the illusion of electability because of better poll numbers.

i expect something similar will occur on the DEM side, and using the 8 weeks blueprint would mean that "hostilities" would need to cease by the end of June, which coincides roughly with the end of the voting schedule.

thus by the time of the convention in Denver, where the DEM nominee will make the most anticipated and watched political speech in a generation, all of the bitterness of the primary season will have been forgotten as the focus becomes not just winning the GE in November, but winning it while bringing in another 30 new DEM House members and up to 9 new DEM Senators.

i will argue that close poll numbers in September and October are to be expected, with up to near double-digit undecideds, and will be a benefit to the DEM nominee and Congressional candidates ultimately, as the undecideds will break heavily toward the DEM after the debates when the electorate has to fully face the prospect of four more years of Bush policies implemented by a rather older man who only truly understands war, but nothing else.

The 3 Most Obvious Things about Hillary

the 3 most obvious things about Hillary are the very 3 things that will prevent her from winning the Democratic nomination.
(unless the "unspeakable" happens)

Hillary is a Woman
Hillary is a Clinton
Hillary is .. Hillary

all of her adult life, Hillary has worked in a field dominated by men, and for the past 28 years, men predisposed to espouse 'conservative' rhetoric/image/values (irrespective of reality), to gain electoral victory. thus she has worked, especially since winning elected office, to emulate the success formula by developing a centrist resume and a reputation/record of being "tough" (like a man/leader).

the advantages afforded by her marriage to a Clinton, along with his historical record, now hamper her efforts as much or more than they help.

but ultimately, Hillary is herself, and but a few minutes of television and/or headlines everyday for a few months has revealed her true self to all who have paid any attention.

THE TIMES HAVE SO CHANGED... and Hillary did not have the foresight to see it coming. but even so, should the "unspeakable" happen and Hillary became the Democratic nominee by default, the three obvious things would still only be enough to make her victory in November "a close run thing".

that is how desperate the American people are for CHANGE.

The FIRST Test(s)

the FIRST TEST(S)... plural

the first tests to determine if a candidate
for President of the United States
should/will become the next
.... President of the United States.

1. assembling campaign staff and outlining strategies/"message".
2. raising money
3. spending money
4. handling "winning" (maximizing)
5. handling "losing" (minimizing/rebounding)
6. how/when to "attack"
7. how/when to "defend"

this process unfolds sporadically over only a few weeks or months for all but the most ardent politicophiles, and even then many of the nuances of decision-making are knowable only in retrospect.

the 'tip of the iceberg' is always the candidate, while most of the heavy lifting is done by others, but even that is reflective of the candidate's abilities to adopt, adapt, and improve, but most importantly of all, manage money.

and if all that is successful enough, the candidate becomes the nominee who then makes what is called the "first truly 'Presidential' decision", the selection of a running-mate. and by it, and informed by the sum-total of so many decisions and actions that preceded it, the electorate should know quite a lot about the character and abilities of the respective nominees.

combining that assessment with the realities of political demography in relation to the perceived current/future state of world affairs, the nominees' pre-campaign records, and proposed policies, should make the decision an easy one for any voter who knows what they truly want.

303 . 1 d # iw sp . at . an . dg . dg1 . goo . hm . ym . my . cp . anti . pjb . wprn . fr . du . hp . lew . nyt . frm . wthr . ras . tpv . itx . oped . ed . wiki . $s . ca . $$ . mkt . blmb . trsx . truk . v . sevr . hitch . hw . strat4 . bq .hrtz . jp . yt . 13 . polls . brm . rcp . rcm . tdal . ecal . tun . hill . fmk . pmk . mw2 . bbc . rwb . ard . ger . vots . kos . wsj . jw . fee . 8 . hm . rwn . ii . sa . lies . gulfs . polfs . wap . ich . taki . mic . hot . 84 . time . rjc . jf . sci . w2k . fps . poac . cpd . bart . gas . ire . au . tli . dvd smc . pop . gm . iq . map . gal . fb . pof .. cam .cam. exc . wd . gr . pco . iht . tap . big . galv . bb . cf . polls . tt . pt . ev . ntyp . mm . fb . mt . red . dow . calc . coop . rge . jud . fdl . lc . pw . cfn . ray . un . oil . amp . us . mt . jf . foe . tdb . cb . lm . ru . ur . bp . rtv . adn . 11 . muk . geo . sr . aj . os . ergo . tb . sec . qb . bdi . htz . rsc . W . mf . oilx . arbiz . cams . bistro . bb . $ub . pt . hou .

Hillary's 'Kvetchin'-Sink Strategy

"Obama is not a Muslim (As Far As I Know...) but he is an "Elitist" - HRC 2008
For someone, who, with her spouse, has grossed more than a million dollars a month since George W. Bush took office, to label her opponent as "Elitist", well... "chutzpah" doesn't begin to cover it. And after downing a couple of whiskey shots this weekend in Indiana, what's next? Pork Rinds ?

And when it comes to "bitter"?

Methinks Hillary doth project too much!

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

George W. Bush's Iraq policy is doing to the U.S. military (especially the Army & Natl. Guard) the exact same thing that Gov. Mike Huckabee did to the Arkansas State Police's airplane.

to wear it completely out, for his own political advantage, so that his successor has to replace it at great cost to the taxpayers.

thus, in W's case, forcing massive future expenditures on his own pet government programs, while simultaneously limiting the amount available to spend on the successor's priorities. in other words, a "set-up", another in a long line of geo-political acts based firstly on domestic partisan political considerations.

=======================================================

"if the use of an ill-chosen word and the failure to repudiate/jettison his spiritual guide of 20 years for temporary political expediency, because of his long ago ill-chosen words, is the worst you can say about a man who'd rather spend hundreds of billions of dollars feeding, clothing, building roads and power plants for people in lieu of bombing/killing/torturing them in order to steal their natural resources, then the people of the United States are well on their way to having the opportunity to correct many of the mistakes they've allowed for the past 60 years." shs 14apr2008

=======================================================

"as this political year has unfolded, it certainly seems as though the frontrunner for the Democratic Party's nomination is asking the people of the United States for a chance to lead them, while his opponent for the nomination continues to assert that she is most qualified to rule them. and perhaps that explains the difference in their votes/delegate counts ?" shs 14apr2008

Paraf**kinoid

being that the interests of the corporate media, the military-industrial complex, the criminals of the Bush Administration, the Israeli and Religious Right-Wings, and the Clintons are in near complete alignment, it comes as no surprise that particular attention is paid by them to promoting the perpetuation of the Democratic Party's nomination contest.

i don't know whose "brilliant" (read: idiotic) idea it was to allow the primaries/caucuses to be frontloaded onto the calendar and then have the conventions as close to the general election as possible, but as it stands now the only things that stand in the way of Obama's nomination are:

a: an unprecedented mistake by Obama
.......................... (think Gerald Ford/Poland to the tenth power)

b: an unprecedented series of mistakes by Obama
.......................... (think Michael Dukakis to the third power)

c: another Sirhan Sirhan
.......................... (in which case it really is 1968 again and Hillary IS Nixon)

d: a major terrorist attack
.......................... (in the U.S. or China during the Olympics, Pakistan, or ?)

e: Bush or the Israelis ginning up another WAR in the Middle East
.......................... (not the big one IRAN, Gaza or Lebanon will do)

the longer Hillary stays in the race, (even if she pulls a "Huckabee" i.e. 'campaigning without attacking the presumed nominee) the greater the chances are for one or more of the above to change the political calculus of the Democratic Party's nomination.

'tis 20 weeks until the Convention in Denver
.............................. ('tis gonna be a long goddamn 20 weeks)

p.s. Dear Madame Clinton: if thou doth not understand how so many people are "bitter" and want real change, thou hath not been listening. (neither did they gross over $100 MILLION in income during the Bush Administration's tenure)

The Biggest Lie ?

"I will not wait on events, while dangers gather. I will not stand by, as peril draws closer and closer. The United States of America will not permit the world's most dangerous regimes to threaten us with the world's most destructive weapons."

... George W. Bush SOTU January 2002

President Bush's Statement on North Korea Nuclear Test
For Immediate Release
Office of the Press Secretary October 9, 2006 9:58 A.M. EDT

THE PRESIDENT: Last night the government of North Korea proclaimed to the world that it had conducted a nuclear test. We're working to confirm North Korea's claim. Nonetheless, such a claim itself constitutes a threat to international peace and security. The United States condemns this provocative act. Once again North Korea has defied the will of the international community, and the international community will respond.

The Trick Question ?

I want :

the number of dollars spent by the U.S. Federal Government on subsidies/welfare, both social and corporate (especially high-tech weaponry and the militarization of space) to be set on a path of incremental change, resulting 8 years later in significant, some would say "radical" reductions. (-20% at least, correlated to fewer/fairer taxes and a true balanced budget)

fewer Federal laws more fully and fairly applied. (and fewer FedGov programs/departments/employees) with only 3 categories of persons in the Federal Code: 1. Full Citizen 2. pre-Full Citizen 3. non-Citizen

full restoration of "Habeus Corpus", 4th Amendment protections, 'due process', and 'the rule of law' (regardless of race, creed, colour, orientation, financial status)

50% reduction in the U.S. Armed Forces stationed outside the U.S. (in 8 years or less)

pre-WWII 'checks/balances' of power restored, between the U.S. HoR/Senate, the Judicial Branch, and the Executive Branch.

pre-WWII 'balance of power' restored, between the States and the Federal Government.

the integrity of the U.S. borders restored/enforced. (with a fairer/more competent legal-immigration policy, and illegal-assimilation policy)

the elimination of all Federal drug laws and agencies enforcing them.

U.S. FedGov policies/laws to NOT impede research/market solutions to protect/preserve/restore the quality of air/land/water. (and Federal land/water use policies to support, not subvert, those solutions)

U.S. international Trade policies to reflect the need for slower incremental reductions in the gap between foreign workers' standards-of-living/wages and the American labor force's.

The "Trick" Question? ...

Are such desires "Liberal" or "Conservative" ?

Clinton "Logic"

"How can anyone assert that a candidate/campaign that began with such enormous advantages in polling, money, and name recognition, and then performed so poorly as to squander those leads to the point of being too far behind an "inexperienced newcomer" to be able to catch up or win, without massive help or 'divine interference', ... is still the one best suited to take on the GOP nominee in the general election?" - stephenhsmith 8Apr2008

Their "logic" escapes me. (but then again, they've never made sense to me)

Gross Income

over $109 MILLION in 8 years (*2007 totals not in yet)
over $108 MILLION in 7 years (since BC42's leaving office)
= $1.135 MILLION per month or... $37,000 per DAY

= $1.28 MILLION per month or... $42,000 per DAY

(ironically the same as Arkansan's median income for one YEAR)

$108M - $34M(taxes) - $10M (gifting) = $64M /84months

= $761,ooo per month, $25,ooo per day, $1,042 per hour

2 lawyers, 1 a former President, 1 a future President*

(*at billing time, pardon the pun)

for $521/hour each (net)

24 hours a day, every day since George W. has been POTUS

"i know living in New York is expensive, but DAMN...

or maybe they just missed the '80's ("decade of greed")

and are catching up"

.

*p.s. does not include NY State taxes

which i'm sure are a bitch

The Opening Shot

Barack Obama's campaign is "The Opening Shot" of the coming 'war between the generations', and/or the last echo of those whose worldviews were shaped by, or prior to, VietNam/the '60's.

Those born in the 1960's now find themselves sandwiched in between people who grew up having to deal with the Draft and those who were raised on cable tv, vcr's, computers/internet, and cell phones. The demarcations also include different views and experiences on/with the role of Government in society, it's methods, and most importantly, it's priorities. The 'in-between'ers' will have to decide whether the U.S. government continues to try to 'police/democratize the world' as it has for the past six decades via economic coercion and military force, or to focus inward to reform itself into a fully-functioning example for others to admire and emulate.

The 'in-between'ers' with few or no personal memories of VietNam/the '60's impact upon U.S. society, including the Democratic Party nominee, will have to choose. Between a man who personally remembers the news of Pearl Harbor, whose views of the proper role of the United States on the world stage were shaped by WWII, the Cold War, his own experiences in VietNam, and the ensuing fallout and rebound from it.

Whereas the younger supporters of Obama have few or no personal memories of Ronald Reagan. Their worldviews are shaped by the ubiquitous interactive technologies they were raised with, and the post-'60's social and political trends accelerated by those new communication tools. Indeed if an 18 y/o voter this November was born to 3 preceding generations of 18 year old parents, John McCain would be but 1 year younger than their great-grandparents.

I expect that a McCain/Obama contest will be the largest generational/age/policy/worldview gap in U.S. history, both literally and figuratively. And it will be but the harbinger of very substantial and often ugly and bitter policy fights over government spending to come over the next decade.

To what extent those born in the 1960's commit themselves to making sacrifices for the future well-being of their children will be the determining factor in the 'generations war' to come. They may act decisively in 2008 or they may not. Only time will tell. But at least they will have a choice.

Unless another Sirhan or another 911 takes that choice away.

The Math of the Aftermath

"Our future is Hillary's Decision"

in politics, MATH TRUMPS ALL, in votes, polls, calendars, and MONEY.

which means that Hillary's quest for the nomination now has an exceedlingly slight possibility of success, due to the dearth of states/delegates left to vote, the margins of victory that would be necessary, and most importantly perhaps, the amount of money such an effort would cost.

normally such numbers would mean that an Obama/Clinton ticket is almost a necessity. but, beginning with the fact that it's the first wide-open POTUS race, on both sides, in 80 years, 2008 began and continues to be anything but a "normal" year.

Hillary has a reputation for being "tough" or to put it more bluntly, as an "attack dog", which is historically the role of the VP nominee in the GE campaign. (yes, such a ticket would undermine somewhat a key component of Obama's message of "moving beyond the 'politics of the past', but politics, especially national, makes for strange bedfellows, ala 1960, 1980, 2000 etc.)

in the past 8 weeks since John McCain effectively won the GOP nomination, the Hillary campaign has repeatedly sought to paint Obama as unqualified to be POTUS, even to the extent of asserting that McCain is. such campaign "hardball" is to be expected, and it has taken a toll on both Obama's and Hillary's poll numbers, but it hasn't yet become disabling. (6 weeks ago large and vocal sections of the GOP were declaring their discontent with McCain, to the point of voting for Hillary or not voting at all. amazing what a few good poll numbers can change)

but as April becomes May and then June, such intramural squabbling, if it escalates, or merely continues, can definitely cripple the DEM nominee, in what should be the easiest election victory since 1932. (and to quote the most ardent wing of the DEMs "if it's not close, they can't steal it")

thus if the MATH dictates, Hillary will have only a couple or few months with which to heal the wounds of the primary season, assume the role the electorate has decided she should play, and go on to make History. she (and a few million others) will need help during the next month or so, in not only realizing it, but embracing it.

or not. for Hillary has the power to render Obama unelectable if she so chooses. how she proceeds in Pennsylvania and onwards, will be most revealing.

for now, it is truly up to her, and her alone.

and the whole world is watching.

Compare and Contrast

"they thought it would be so easy and never bothered to wonder what they would do if it wasn't" ... stephenhsmith 28Mar2008

WHO am I talking about ?

a: Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld et al, on taking out Saddam and occupying Iraq?

b: the Clintons, on Hillary's quest for the Democratic Party nomination?

c: both

... isn't "foresight" and "prudence" something a President should have (in massive quantities) ?

Three Words

the 3 most under-utilized words in Government (especially Washington D.C.) are:

"STOP" "DON'T" & "NO"

unfortunately, elected officials and hundreds of thousands of appointed bureaucrats hear backwards, as in:

"NO, DON'T STOP"

And How ?

"When did having successfully evaded indictment become one of the main prerequisites for electability ?"

stephenhsmith 27Mar2008

"Enron, WorldCom, Arthur Anderson, Global Crossing, Tyco, NYSE, Qwest, Bear Stearns, CountryWide, etc.etc.etc... can anyone argue that more harm would have been done to the US economy, (besides just the pension funds, bond and shareholders) if those corporations' books, taxes, and compensation practices had been overscrutinized ?"

stephenhsmith 28Mar2008

The Worst Kind of Racism... Political Expediency (1992)

....

"These are examples of a kind of racism that is rarely seen in our country in this day and age, the racism of political expediency. When it is to Governor Clinton's benefit in a campaign or the molding of his "image", he will make a very public show of small acts, while allowing a never-ending myriad of small scale injustices to perpetuate themselves. To correct them would cost Clinton favor with the people whose support will be necessary if he is to be successful in his life-long drive for the Presidency of the United States. For his ultimate success, Bill Clinton is entirely willing to play "racial politics" and to allow disadvantaged people to be denied equal rights, equal treatment, and equal protection under the law." ... stephenhsmith july 1992

... from Muleboy's archives, summer of '92 ... a list and a concluding observation

ADDENDUM: such "political calculations" by the Clintons in 1992 were arguably defendable, in light of 12 straight years of GOP occupation of the White House, and after all, they did WIN! (or as James Carville put it "they didn't so much as 'break' the GOP electoral college lock, as 'picked' it) yet the Clintons are evidently stuck in 1992 (and arguably 2002) when obviously, by the fundraising totals, delegate count, and popular vote count in favor of Obama, the times and methods have changed.

but the Clintons have not.

stephenhsmith 25Mar2008

liberating

in my time of dying, as the date draws ever nearer
i'm heartened by the simple fact that life becomes much clearer
contrary to the axiom, it's "darkest 'fore the dawn"
my light burns ever brighter, up until it's gone

and if my words have purpose, only time will show
to follow from the dying light and leave a teaching glow
the love is in the labor, for those who dare to think
of others and not just themselves, the chain, and not the link

stephenhsmith 24Mar2008

Racism and Religious Fundamentalism

"Racism and Religious Fundamentalism are the oxygen and petroleum, without which the fires of ethic-less crony capitalism, militarism, and imperialism could not continue to burn"

stephenhsmith 24Mar2008

the number is FOUR THOUSAND

or, if you are George W. Bush the number is FOUR (Comma) THOUSAND.

what does that number represent ?

a: the number of U.S. KIA's in the War/Occupation in IRAQ over the last 5 years?

b: the number of Iraqis killed/wounded in sectarian conflict so far this year?

c: the number of DOLLARS PER SECOND being spent by the US Govt. on an illegal and immoral WAR?

d: all of the above?

THE ANSWER IS ... D

It's Time We Stop...Hey, What's That Sound ?

It may well be the sound of ICE "breaking", as Governor Bill Richardson endorses Barack Obama's Presidential candidacy, especially timed after the Rev. Wright "hit" and "rebound".

As the GOP slime tactics were perfected over the past 40-50-60 years (depending on whether you start with Nixon's POTUS runs or his first Senate campaign) a large portion of the Democratic Party concluded that the only way to "fight" against the slime was to adopt similar tactics ("fight Fire with Fire", so to speak)

along comes a younger candidate, imbued with the sensibility of a new generation whose whole lives have been conducted during the escalating political slime wars (even as the culture grew more tolerant on social issues, though more militant on foreign policies) and are rightly revolted by it. and he argues that perhaps it would be better for all concerned if such "Fire" were fought with "Water".

so far it seems, that somewhere between 1/4 and 1/3 of the american electorate are already on board with such a "new kind of politics" with perhaps an equal amount only waiting to be convinced that it can really work before they too jump on.

Richardson may be correct in his "once in a lifetime" assertion. and after what i've seen in my life, my conclusion is to "give it a try" (as it is damn near impossible to imagine that it could fail so badly as to be worse than what we've already known)

5 years ago and 6 years ago

notice how the Iraq War anniversary is dated from the invasion and not from two days before when President George W. Bush went on national television to announce an ultimatum that Saddam Hussein had 48 hours to leave (and then 10 hours later W ordered the US Air Force to assassinate Saddam, but they failed) *a harbinger if there ever was one.

yet, it was what happened a year earlier that is perhaps even more important, as an article in the McClatchy newspapers told anyone who was really listening what was going to happen.

Bush has decided to overthrow Hussein
By Warren P. Strobel and John Walcott Knight Ridder Newspapers
Posted on Wednesday, February 13, 2002

WASHINGTON — President Bush has decided to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein from power and ordered the CIA, the Pentagon and other agencies to devise a combination of military, diplomatic and covert steps to achieve that goal, senior U.S. officials said Tuesday.

No military strike is imminent, but Bush has concluded that Saddam and his nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programs are such a threat to U.S. security that the Iraqi dictator must be removed, even if U.S. allies do not help, said the officials, who all spoke on condition of anonymity.

... per the chart (above) apparently those who shape world's currency markets were most definitely listening, as the US DOLLAR lost over 20% of it's value in the months before the "war" (and another 20+% since)

Ferraro Dog Whistles Naked

after so much attention to Geraldine Ferraro's 'dog-whistle' (pardon the pun) earlier this week, the political media equivalent of her tearing off her clothes (pardon the visual), running into the middle of Rockefeller Center and yelling the 'N' word, one begins to wonder how such an assertion could be made many times more than a week before, yet comes to the shout shows and newspaper headlines at that particular time.

i suspect it was largely not a coincidence, but rather a part of an operation to distract voter's attention long enough to give the supporters of the Senator from New York time to convince the Governor of New York that he dare not even think of employing the 'Bill Clinton' strategy of fighting through the publicity storm, potential legal charges, and defying the legislature should they try to impeach him. no, he had to go as quickly as possible, because the next six weeks are critical to Hillary's declining chances for the Democratic nomination, and they must not be spent being reminding voters of the darker side of her '35 years of experience'.

but for argument's sake, which is essentially my life, let us take Ferraro's assertion and apply it as equally as possible.

an articulate, inspiring, 47 year old, white first-term Senator from Illinois, running on a classic "outsider-against Wash.D.C." message that includes the most powerful and credible "anti-Iraq War" component among the many candidates, is pitted after a couple of months of primaries, caucuses, and the carcasses of the other's failed campaigns, against a wonkish, 60 year old, white female second-term Senator from New York, running on a classic "insider" message of "i know where the power levers are, and how to get things done" which includes the persuasive argument of having a great deal of experience at withstanding and prevailing against the opposing party's dirty-tricks campaigning.

i would expect that if Barack was not Black and Hillary were not a Clinton, that both the Black and Female voting blocs would be split almost evenly, which ironically, would likely create a delegate dilemma very similar to that which now exists.

lines of distinction and conflict already exist between urban and rural, black and white, male and female, and young and old. whether a candidate/campaign seeks to blur or sharpen those distinctions should be quite telling. both candidates will be defined by the conduct of their campaigns, the power of their messages, and their ability to adapt to unforeseen events, but eventually it will be the character of the american electorate that is most revealed.

4000 ? 100,000 ? & $4,629

During the next six weeks before the Pennsylvania Primary on 22April, a most sad but important benchmark number is likely to become reality.

It is the number 4000.

If you don't know what that number represents, then the number itself is even more important. The numbers 100,000 and also $4,629 should be making news and re-inserting themselves into the public conscience as well.

And what impact will the number 4000 have on the national discourse on the issues of the day when it arrives?

GOP BHO JAP

the only way the GOP can beat BHO is to turn him into a JAP
(Just Another Politician)

which, with the negative "Mighty Wurlitzer" megaphones of O'Reilly & Limbaugh, should be easy to do, BUT...

rather large chunks of the american electorate (mostly under 40)
have demonstrated so far this year an increasing willingness to punish, with their votes, candidates deemed to have engaged in "the politics of the past",
("personal destruction"), i.e. attacking their opponents with distortions and
innuendo, even "triangulation".

many of the under-40 voters have also come to believe that the system
itself is corrupt and corrupts those who participate in it (especially in regard
to Wash D.C.) therefore they often equate "experience" with corruption.
(and arguably they may well have a point)

conversely, they see inexperience (relatively) in a different light than those
of us who have witnessed many more elections, as not a disqualifier at all,
but instead as an asset.

some of this was revealed during Huckabee's early campaigning, though
he chose not to try to expand his support beyond his base after initial
success and his revealingly clumsy failure to stealthily practice the
politics of personal destruction without leaving fingerprints.

time will tell if Obama is indeed "slicker than Slick", but arguably so far he
has been. and the fact that the electorate is displaying a desire for
"something as different, from what they have known/seen, as they can get"
dovetails into the new paradigm of internet communications (fundraising, organizing, message assertion and rebuttal from the top and the bottom/grassroots) and a very large number of new voters who have grown up, as Obama has, after the Civil Rights/Desegregation fights of the 1960's and '70's. (indeed, mention Watergate, even Reagan, to them and watch their eyes glaze over)

for over two years now Polls have shown that well over half (actually often
two/thirds) of Americans want reversals in US-Iraq policies and
disapprove of the job that the current POTUS has been doing. The US
economy is not likely to dramatically recover between now and the
election, and the presumed GOP nominee is a "carbon-copy-on-steroids" of "W" when the issues are War, Israel, Iran, etc. so much so that even another terrorist attack inside the US may not produce the expected knee-jerk reaction by the American people after so many years of headlines and lies that have conditioned them to be skeptical.

perhaps the question will come down to: "do a few JAP spots (rezko,
finesse, nuance, flip-flops etc.) on an otherwise clean slate, damage
Obama's ability to win?"

to me the answer is absolutely, NOT.

the only way i can see Obama losing the GE this fall is if he makes a mistake.
not any old mistake. it'd have to be a mistake of historic and unprecedented proportions. like liberating Poland ala Gerald R. Ford, only to the 100th power.

and even that might not do it. that is how hungry Americans are for CHANGE.

Inheriting Mencken

of every bastard's printed word
who dares to show the sublime's absurd
there's one man they've surely read
Mencken. more alive after he's dead

Goodbye Bill

In the gospel of H.L. Mencken, one must respect, even admire "competence".

Accordingly, I hereby say a heartfelt "good-bye" to William F. Buckley.

For he was often right, but always entertaining, and more importantly, he made you think.

When he came to feel that he had been wrong, he corrected himself.

I am afraid we will not see much of that in the future.

Bill now joins an evergrowing list of writers whom I dearly wish could have lived to see what the next few years will bring.

stephenhsmith 27Feb2008

8 Months ago 8 Months to go

Next Tuesday, 4 March 2008, voters in Texas and Ohio will go to the polls, perhaps to decide the Democratic POTUS nominee for 2008. The same day will mark exactly 8 months before the general election.

And how long is 8 months?

Well, 8 months before March 4th was July 4th, 2007.

Irving "Scooter" Libby had just been pardoned... oops pardon me, "commuted".

England's new Prime Minister (Gordon Brown) had been on the job for two weeks.
France's new President (Nicolas Sarkozy) for six weeks.

Pundits wondered if Fred Thompson was really going to run. Polls showed him behind Rudy Giuliani but ahead of the moribund John McCain (RG 33, FT 21, JM 16) while on the DEM side Hillary Clinton polled almost as much as Barack Obama and John Edwards combined (HC 40, BO 28, JE 13)

The DOW was pushing to clear 14,000 for the first time (up 29% from 10,800 in a year) and the FED reassured everyone that the difficulties within the "subprime" market had been "contained" and the "slump" in housing sales had "bottomed" already.

The "Surge" had not yet been fully implemented, but American KIA's in Iraq came down from over 100 per month to less than 80.

And despite calls from within his own party, US Attorney General Alberto Gonzales would not resign for another 10 weeks.

... and that was just 8 months ago. a long time ain't it ?