19 April 2008

8 Lifetimes

if a week is a "lifetime" in Politics, then using the GOP in 2008 as an example, just 8 weeks ago large chunks of the Republican base voters, and many prominent spokespersons were lamenting 'the death of the GOP' and wailing utterly. whereas now they are muted and more unified by the illusion of electability because of better poll numbers.

i expect something similar will occur on the DEM side, and using the 8 weeks blueprint would mean that "hostilities" would need to cease by the end of June, which coincides roughly with the end of the voting schedule.

thus by the time of the convention in Denver, where the DEM nominee will make the most anticipated and watched political speech in a generation, all of the bitterness of the primary season will have been forgotten as the focus becomes not just winning the GE in November, but winning it while bringing in another 30 new DEM House members and up to 9 new DEM Senators.

i will argue that close poll numbers in September and October are to be expected, with up to near double-digit undecideds, and will be a benefit to the DEM nominee and Congressional candidates ultimately, as the undecideds will break heavily toward the DEM after the debates when the electorate has to fully face the prospect of four more years of Bush policies implemented by a rather older man who only truly understands war, but nothing else.