With two weeks left in 2006, I thought it time to go ahead and revisit my first post from 10nov2005 titled "2006 The Year of Regime Changes".
The ebb and flow of national leadership change seems to be moving back to flow in 2006. Factors of age, health, scandal, weakness, and conflict, are combining again to set the stage for a large number of changes in the highest echelons of national power.
By the end of 2006, I expect the following nations to have new leaders. The United Kingdom, Israel, Syria, Iraq, France, Germany, Canada, and Cuba.....changes at the top of Zimbabwe, South Africa, and the Vatican are also increasingly likely.
To complete the new mosaic, the United States will have a new Vice-President, if not by the end of 2006, then shortly thereafter.
Mugabe is still running Zimbabwe and now asking for four more years, so I've missed that one completely unless the gods intervene quickly. SAfrica, the Vatican, France, and Syria were also misses.
But I nailed Israel, Germany, Iraq, Canada, and Cuba. (No Castro is not dead, but the predictions were for 'new leaders', and Raoul qualifies.) And I damn near nailed the United Kingdom, as Tony Blair was forced to publicly assert that he would step down, but not until 2007. And I refrained from naming Mexico, Japan, and the UN, which would have artificially boosted my numbers.
But 5 out of 11 is not bad for such predictions, so I am unashamed of my record, and after all there is still time. And #12 still looms tantalizingly close.
