Repeat after me...
There is NO SUCH THING as a
WAR WITHOUT INFLATION !!!
GOLD
Sept, 2001 ..... $275
April 2003 .... $330
Nov 2004 ..... $430
TODAY ..... $486
COPPER
Sept 2001 $.66
April 2003 $.70
Nov 2004 $1.35
TODAY $1.94
OIL
sept 2001 $24
april 2003 $28
nov 2004 $48
TODAY $57
NATGAS
sept 2001 $2.75
april 2003 $5.50
nov 2004 $8.50
TODAY $12.50
LUMBER
sept 2001 $300
april 2003 $250
nov 2004 $320
TODAY $350
Silver, Platinum, Gasoline, etc.. are now at multi-decade highs.
Current prices are a direct result of three things.
FED monetary policy (the unprecedented creation of "money" )
CHINA's economic growth (averaging over 8%)
U.S. FEDGOV's expenditures on DHS, Afghanistan, and Iraq.
Regardless of how one feels about the necessity and/or wisdom of U.S. FED and FEDGOV policies, the result is INFLATION. The only escape from a major worldwide recession will be for CHINA to continue it's economic expansion (and continue to supply the U.S./World markets with low cost goods) long enough to give the U.S. time to reverse it's current spending, debt creation, and "money" creation policies in a responsible and non-disruptive manner.
It will be one of the greatest feats in fiscal history if it can be done, but I would not bet a farthing upon it.
stephen h. smith
17 nov 2005
