It is going to be a very long war.
It will probably last a generation perhaps two. Many of the concepts of freedom that have flowered during the past two centuries are already casualties, never to be known again, unless by some divine Providence, at the conclusion of this war, a condition comes into existence in which modern technology and intellectual reason combine to successfully restrain Man’s most base nature.
The state of war that currently exists between the West and the radical fundamentalist muslims of the Middle East and the rogue state leader capable of increasing their armaments capability, is largely a result of the technological, social, political, and industrial "advances" made by Western economic/military powers during the last century, the imperialist exploitation of the Middle East that made those advances possible, and the introduction and support of a diametrically opposed, historically adversarial, religious based, nuclear capable democracy that now exercises military control of their religions third most holy shrine.
World War I re-introduced imperial European powers to the Middle East at almost precisely the time the Western economies need for oil increased exponentially. The lure of cheap oil combined with the nasty habit of imperialism proved to be irresistable to the Europeans and eventually the U.S.
Diplomats drawing lines on a map after a war have usually caused more problems than they have resolved. Such was the case of the Versailles Treaty. Victorious Britain and France, without U.S. obstruction, not only sowed the seeds of World War II in Europe, but created the foundation for the new war between Islamic fundamentalists and the West.
Technological advances and dependence on internal-combustion engines increased in the Western economies during the 20’s and 30’s and were multiplied and compounded during World War II. By the wars' end the two most important commodities in determining economic and military world power were Plutonium and OIL.
Realizing this, the victorious Western powers immediately setup autocratic states in the Middle East, based largely on longstanding tribal populations, in order to insure the continued stable supply of oil for the West's economic growth and military power.
Two extraordinary results of World War II made the Middle East's oil even more important. The new Cold War, which by 1949 consisted of two ideologically opposed nuclear superpowers. And the creation of the state of Israel, an inexplicable act of benevolence on the part of the new United Nations, which combined with Western exploitation and interference, has been the primary source of aggravation between the Islamic Middle East and the West since.
Western interference in the Middle East during the 1950's, the restoration of the Shah of Iran and the Suez Crisis, further galvanized the Islamic populations. The maintenance of undemocratic regimes, including the Westernization of them through weapons sales, enflamed the Islamic fundamentalists to the point where, having failed in their formal military attacks against the state of Israel, they resorted to terrorism. Ironically emulating the successful policy the Zionists in Israel used against the British in the 1940's.
By 1964 Israel had become a nuclear power. By 1973, the U.S. had publicly and decisively thwarted the last of the organized military attacks on Israel by the Middle Eastern powers. This led to the consolidation of OPEC and the use of an Oil Embargo as an economic weapon against the West. New government regulations, new oil discoveries, and free-market responses by the West to the threat of a limited supply of oil rendered this weapon obsolete by the 1990's.
Simultaneously, the westernized government of Egypt under Sadat made peace with Israel, while the athiestic Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan. Sadat's bold gambit radicalized the fundamentalist muslims in his own country, who then focused their terrorist efforts on destroying his government. The Soviets attempt to subdue the fundamentalists in Afghanistan in order to suppress their own muslim population's separatist sentiments, provided the radical Islamicists with the perfect rationale for jihad and the training ground for a kind of guerrilla warfare that translates easily into terrorism. Ironically their fight was made winnable because once again, the West, in the form of the U.S., supplied them with the military hardware needed for success.
In a few short years, pro-western Sadat was assassinated, the pro-western Shah of Iran was overthrown by fundamentalists muslims, and a new smart, ruthless, and ambitious man instituted a military dictatorship in Iraq. This did not go unnoticed by the Saudis, the Israelis, or the Palestinians.
During the 1980's, the comparatively secular Iraq, under Saddam Hussein, waged war with the new fundamentalist regime of Ayatollah Khomeini's Iran. The U.S. again interfered by providing military aid to Iraq.
While the Soviets were bogged down in Afghanistan and Iraq was at war with Iran, the Saudis took notice and began to move toward a closer relationship with the West, for they too had a simmering pot full of fundamentalists and they did not want to see it come to a boil. The Saudis successfully diverted the fundamentalists attention away from their own internal flaws out toward the athiest Soviets fighting muslims in Afghanistan and to the neverending Israeli/Palestinian conflict. Such diversions worked well until the Soviets capitulated and the Israelis and Palestinians began to outline a path to peace.
The victory over the Soviets in Afghanistan emboldened the now organized radical fundamentalist muslims. The "threat" of peace in Palestine provided a congruence between the autocratic leaders of muslim countries and their radical fundamentalist minorities. Hence, the escalation of terrorism in the West Bank, the Israeli northern border, and inside Israel itself.
Saddam Hussein had made peace with Iran. He rebuilt his $40 billion army, once again with U.S. assistance, in order to settle an old boundary dispute with Kuwait, that would result in his controlling nearly 20% of the Middle East's known oil reserves, and establish his regime as a regional superpower. When the subject came up in August of 1990, U.S. State Department attache' April Glaspie told Saddam "the U.S. has no position on internal border disputes". That sounded like a resounding "YES" to Saddam, who believed he now had a greenlight from his longtime ally and arms supplier to do what he wanted.
Thus the invasion of Kuwait and the subsequent surprising Western and regional response. The Saudi's decided to support the West against a muslim nation, culminating in the establishment of military bases for U.S. forces to remain after the war. This constituted betrayal to the radical fundamentalists and gave the now organized, experienced, and well funded terrorist network Al Quaeda reason to escalate it's activities.
U.S. military bases in the muslim holiest of lands, whose purpose was to support a pro-western Saudi government and incarcerate Iraq, as well as tacit and overt U.S. support for Israel in it's expansionist policies, suppression of the Palestinians, and it's military attack on Iraq in the 1980's, all combined to provide Al Quaeda with a new target, … the United States.
Al Quaeda is a loose-knit terrorist organization founded and propagated on Wahabbist fundamentalist Islamic principles, funded by blackmail and wealthy muslim black-sheep, whose original purpose was to drive the athiest Soviet "infidels" out of muslim Afghanistan.
Having accomplished their stated goals, Al Quaeda broadened it's mission to include the overthrow of pro-Western governments in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. The seeds of Al Quaeda began in Egypt with the anti-Sadat, anti-Western, anti-peace with Israel, fundamentalist muslim movement. Sadat's assassination marked the beginning of it's activism, followed by the invasion of Lebanon by Israel, culminating in it's consolidation in Afghanistan in response to the Soviet invasion. In this endeavor many elements of Al Quaeda were supported by the U.S.
Following the Gulf War, the Saudi government built bases inside Saudi Arabia for "permanent" U.S. military presence. This constituted the second great motivating factor for Al Quaeda's continued existence and growth. The Saudi governing family's response to Al Quaeda's threat was to buy them off and divert their attentions toward Israel and the U.S. This policy led to the establishment of the Taliban in Afghanistan, the bombing of the WTC in 1993, the establishment of Al Quaeda bases and networks in Sudan and Somalia, (resulting in the debacle of Mogadishu in 1993 and two bombings of U.S. embassies in Africa in 1998), the attack on the U.S.S Cole, and support of muslim military activities in the Balkans and Chechnya.
U.S. policy in Israel, the Balkans, Africa, and Iraq, exacerbated the historical grievances with the fundamentalist movement to the point where attacks were planned for New Year's Eve 1999/2000 and were thwarted, and then September 11, 2001 which were successful.
It was the stated goal of Osama Bin Laden to create a war between the muslims of the middle east and the West for the purposes of:
Uniting the muslims.
Overthrowing pro-western muslim governments.
Replacing them with fundamentalist regimes.
Ousting the imperialist western powers from the middle east.
And eliminating the state of Israel.
From a U.S. point of view, it would seem that OBL and Al Quaeda seriously underestimated Western resolve. But that would presume that the fundamentalist muslims thought in terms of victory being achievable in a span of a few years and did not include massive destruction of infrastructure and subsequent occupation by western forces.
It is quite possible that Western presumptions of current Al Quaeda expectations are completely wrong. Indeed it seems likely that the U.S. is committed to attack Iraq, destroy much of it's infrastructure, and occupy in force for many years. Such an action may well play into the aspirations and expectations of Al Quaeda perfectly. Even a successful execution of U.S. policy in Iraq will likely have an immeasurable impact in motivating the fundamentalist islamic movement. It would constitute another imposition of a "pro-Western" government in the muslim world, based on economic exploitation of it's oil resources, and provide the fundamentalists with nearby targets in abundance. (Such is already beginning in Afghanistan)
The stated goal of current/impending U.S. policy is regime change in Iraq and destruction of the Al Quaeda network. U.S. policy on Iraq is predicated upon the reasoning that Saddam Hussein has displayed the desire to acquire and use weapons of mass destruction, tangentially supports terrorism, (including Al Quaeda), and thus constitutes a threat to U.S./Western interests.
The two great flaws in the U.S. policy are:
1. The reaction to even a successful execution of U.S. policy will be intense, violent, and last generations. It will turn the entire world into a battleground, including the U.S. mainland. The "WAR" hoped for by Osama Bin Laden and Al Quaeda will have begun in earnest.
2. A fundamentalist Muslim power with modern weapons of mass destruction and the ability to deliver them anywhere in the world already exists. PAKISTAN. A large minority of fundamentalist muslims constitute the military and intelligence forces of Pakistan today.
A U.S. war on Iraq, especially if aided by Israel, will galvanize even more of Pakistan's muslims against the West. A military coup could easily establish a Muslim arsenal for a war against the U.S. and the West, that would last for generations and would include nuclear attacks on the U.S. mainland.
THEREFORE...
A large scale military attack on Iraq by the United States must be predicated upon short term goals and long term commitments.
The short term goal is to destroy Saddam Hussein and his weapons program. While simultaneously establishing the precedent for coordinated international actions against any future nuclear ambitions by any rogue state/leader.
AND the long term commitments to:
1. containment or destruction of Pakistan's nuclear capability and it's political makeup.
2. controlling the backlash of muslim fundamentalists throughout the Middle East.
3. reducing the dependence on oil for the West's economies.
4. the establishment of a new social-political paradigm within the U.S. for it's self-defense for decades to come.
5. an efficient new world political order to execute long term policy.
If any of these commitments fail in any way, the ensuing destruction will render the Middle East and the Western powers impotent. Even the successful implementation of the necessary measures will severely hinder economic growth for decades. It could be a great century to be Chinese.
IN SUMMARY :
A demonstration of U.S. power and resolve is absolutely necessary.
The precedent must be set that no terror attack upon the U.S. will go unpunished. I would advocate a patient and determined covert policy of assassination of rogue leaders and support for anti-government forces, similar to the U.S. policy of the 1950’s and longstanding Israeli policy.
The U.S. intelligence and defense forces will have to undergo a comprehensive revision in mission and scope, with a correlating change in civil liberties. Somewhat sadly and perhaps fortunately ironically, the citizens of the United States seem very willing to accept and embrace such changes in the relationship between the governors and the governed.
A new World Government will be necessary in order to contain and combat future terrorism that will utilize weapons of mass destruction. The financial and technological resources of all the "civilized" nation-states will be necessary for effective control and deterrence of terrorism. The execution of such coordinated policies must be perfect, for one mistake, one unguarded place and time, will result in catastrophe.
The mainland United States will be attacked with sophisticated chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons within the next 20 years. Perfection in a policy execution on a worldwide scale is unrealistic. The Islamic fundamentalists will be the most formidable foe to Western Civilization in history due to their commitment and the ever increasing ease with which weapons of mass destruction can be obtained and used. Including electronic warfare.
It is an inescapable fact of history that each generation has to pay for the mistakes caused by greed, stupidity, sloth, and even good intentions, of the generations that preceded it.
Ours will be no exception.
Stephen H. Smith
9.11.2002
