01 April 2008

The Math of the Aftermath

"Our future is Hillary's Decision"

in politics, MATH TRUMPS ALL, in votes, polls, calendars, and MONEY.

which means that Hillary's quest for the nomination now has an exceedlingly slight possibility of success, due to the dearth of states/delegates left to vote, the margins of victory that would be necessary, and most importantly perhaps, the amount of money such an effort would cost.

normally such numbers would mean that an Obama/Clinton ticket is almost a necessity. but, beginning with the fact that it's the first wide-open POTUS race, on both sides, in 80 years, 2008 began and continues to be anything but a "normal" year.

Hillary has a reputation for being "tough" or to put it more bluntly, as an "attack dog", which is historically the role of the VP nominee in the GE campaign. (yes, such a ticket would undermine somewhat a key component of Obama's message of "moving beyond the 'politics of the past', but politics, especially national, makes for strange bedfellows, ala 1960, 1980, 2000 etc.)

in the past 8 weeks since John McCain effectively won the GOP nomination, the Hillary campaign has repeatedly sought to paint Obama as unqualified to be POTUS, even to the extent of asserting that McCain is. such campaign "hardball" is to be expected, and it has taken a toll on both Obama's and Hillary's poll numbers, but it hasn't yet become disabling. (6 weeks ago large and vocal sections of the GOP were declaring their discontent with McCain, to the point of voting for Hillary or not voting at all. amazing what a few good poll numbers can change)

but as April becomes May and then June, such intramural squabbling, if it escalates, or merely continues, can definitely cripple the DEM nominee, in what should be the easiest election victory since 1932. (and to quote the most ardent wing of the DEMs "if it's not close, they can't steal it")

thus if the MATH dictates, Hillary will have only a couple or few months with which to heal the wounds of the primary season, assume the role the electorate has decided she should play, and go on to make History. she (and a few million others) will need help during the next month or so, in not only realizing it, but embracing it.

or not. for Hillary has the power to render Obama unelectable if she so chooses. how she proceeds in Pennsylvania and onwards, will be most revealing.

for now, it is truly up to her, and her alone.

and the whole world is watching.