the only way the GOP can beat BHO is to turn him into a JAP
(Just Another Politician)
which, with the negative "Mighty Wurlitzer" megaphones of O'Reilly & Limbaugh, should be easy to do, BUT...
rather large chunks of the american electorate (mostly under 40)
have demonstrated so far this year an increasing willingness to punish, with their votes, candidates deemed to have engaged in "the politics of the past",
("personal destruction"), i.e. attacking their opponents with distortions and
innuendo, even "triangulation".
many of the under-40 voters have also come to believe that the system
itself is corrupt and corrupts those who participate in it (especially in regard
to Wash D.C.) therefore they often equate "experience" with corruption.
(and arguably they may well have a point)
conversely, they see inexperience (relatively) in a different light than those
of us who have witnessed many more elections, as not a disqualifier at all,
but instead as an asset.
some of this was revealed during Huckabee's early campaigning, though
he chose not to try to expand his support beyond his base after initial
success and his revealingly clumsy failure to stealthily practice the
politics of personal destruction without leaving fingerprints.
time will tell if Obama is indeed "slicker than Slick", but arguably so far he
has been. and the fact that the electorate is displaying a desire for
"something as different, from what they have known/seen, as they can get"
dovetails into the new paradigm of internet communications (fundraising, organizing, message assertion and rebuttal from the top and the bottom/grassroots) and a very large number of new voters who have grown up, as Obama has, after the Civil Rights/Desegregation fights of the 1960's and '70's. (indeed, mention Watergate, even Reagan, to them and watch their eyes glaze over)
for over two years now Polls have shown that well over half (actually often
two/thirds) of Americans want reversals in US-Iraq policies and
disapprove of the job that the current POTUS has been doing. The US
economy is not likely to dramatically recover between now and the
election, and the presumed GOP nominee is a "carbon-copy-on-steroids" of "W" when the issues are War, Israel, Iran, etc. so much so that even another terrorist attack inside the US may not produce the expected knee-jerk reaction by the American people after so many years of headlines and lies that have conditioned them to be skeptical.
perhaps the question will come down to: "do a few JAP spots (rezko,
finesse, nuance, flip-flops etc.) on an otherwise clean slate, damage
Obama's ability to win?"
to me the answer is absolutely, NOT.
the only way i can see Obama losing the GE this fall is if he makes a mistake.
not any old mistake. it'd have to be a mistake of historic and unprecedented proportions. like liberating Poland ala Gerald R. Ford, only to the 100th power.
and even that might not do it. that is how hungry Americans are for CHANGE.
