Aisle-Jumpers Get Ready...
Many old Beltway hands are now predicting a Democratic takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives in the Nov. 7 elections. As an advocate of gridlock, I welcome their confidence, but I fear they are too insulated in the Beltway Bubble to accurately feel the pulse of the American electorate.
I cannot imagine the American voters replicating 1994 in reverse, despite their widespread misgivings and outright disgust with the party in power's previous performance. I see far too many factors in favor of the GOP for there to be a one-sided slaughter. The FED, the OIL and 'DEFENSE' companies, and the CLINTON's (covertly) are doing everything within their power to help maintain the status-quo. Many voters are now stockholders dependent on the GOP for their future returns on investment. The GOP still retains monetary and organizational advantages in addition to many voter's historical fears of 'terrorism' and loathing of Democrats.
Thus I expect, and do indeed hope, that the outcomes will be very close. The more evenly split the House and Senate are, the better.
As I also expect several contests to be determined in courts and runoffs, it could well be that we won't know which party has prevailed until Thanksgiving.
An even split will provide political junkies like me with a welcome spectacle of cock-fighting and horse-trading on a never-before-seen scale. Many true-colours would be revealed by such a spectacle, as the prospects for power grabs and headlines induce an escalating combat of bribery and aisle-jumping. Even the threat of such actions will require massive intimidation and monetary persuasions to thwart potential jumpers. And if truly fortunate, Americans could wind up with Speaker Murtha as a result.
But, as with every electoral result, there will be a downside. Prolongued suspense over which party will control which chamber, could provide the Bush Administration with the motivation and a more free hand to act unilaterally in it's own defense, much to the detriment of all concerned. (Except of course, Halliburton, Boeing, Lockheed, Goldman Sachs, etc.)
Only the FED can induce a sweep of the elections, by increasing interest rates at their 25 October meeting, signalling that the "Powers that Be" have decided to offset the "Unitary" Executive's abilities by 'rehabilitating' the Democratic Party once again. This I do not expect to happen.
And as always, the caveat of another 'terrorist' attack, foreign or domestic, is possible. (watchout Djibouti) Though at this point it is not certain how the American people would react. And one can probably expect more scandals grabbing the headlines in the two weeks left before those who didn't vote early, go to the polls.
But whichever way it goes, one thing is for certain. The most bitter, divisive, and polarizing contest for the White House in our history will begin November 8, 2006.
stephenhsmith
23oct2006
