In playing the percentages, one can make a very nice profit (and many have)and come to be seen as a prophet, whenever war breaks out. For the voices are many that trumpet the line that "It will all be over soon". (Usually stated as 'a few weeks' or 'a few months') But the historical odds are that conflicts last 5 to 10 times as long as initially forecast.
Will History repeat itself in the Middle East in 2006? Is this the beginning of yet another "long war"? I will go with the percentages and say "Yes"!
For the conflict raging in Lebanon today (as Gaza and Iraq have all but been forgotten) benefits too many 'parties' by it's perpetuation to conclude quickly.
Iran benefits from the distraction, as does Al Quaeda, the Iraqi "government", North Korea, resurgent Taliban forces in Afghanistan, Islamic forces in Africa, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Venezuela, (indeed any country that produces OIL for export)and last but foremost, the Republican party of the United States and the Kadima party of Israel. Not to mention the Banks, the Armaments makers, and the OIL companies.
Thus the incentives to cease firing are few, where the profits for corporations and public support for administrations that need "propping up" are many.
One is almost tempted to wonder if his real name is Karl Roveberg? Especially after Ken Mehlmen's ridiculous agit/prop assertion "We're all Israelis now" (Goebbels and Mrs. Miniver would be proud and flattered) For the Bush Administration has much to gain from the continued "operations" (and their almost certain "unintended consequences") in the run-up to the November elections. American public "support" for W has already increased over 30% from it's spring lows in a most ironic way considering the disastrous revelations of the past few months. (atrocities, civil war, fake humility, etc.)
But the real "winner" of the Lebanon sweepstakes is Israel's Kadima party, led by Ehud Olmert. True to form, the Gaza/Lebanon "operations" planned by Ariel Sharon even before the creation of the "Forward" (Kadima) party, is being implemented by Olmert, after the results of an Israeli election that produced the smallest mandate in it's history. (Which makes one wonder if today's actions were the REAL reason Sharon chose KADIMA as the name for his new party?)
But all that is ancient history now as far as the Israeli electorate is concerned, as was probably the plan. The Knesset is no longer concerned with 'no-confidence' votes over the size of the increase in pensions for the elderly, as they were just 90 days ago.
And if all continues to go "according to plan", in another 109 days the GOP will retain control of the Senate and House of Representatives, after campaigning, once again, on "The War on Terror", thus insuring that the last two years of the W Administration are not filled with subpoenas and investigations and any effective oversight of the executive branch by Congress.
So, one can expect the Israelis to slowly execute their "plan", while being ever so careful not to actually eliminate Hezbollah's ability to attack Israel. (Get 'em down to 3 to 5 missiles every other day by U.S. election time) Then they can assert that they are "winning", yet retain the rationale for continuing.
Somewhere Osama is smiling, and the ghost of Abraham Lincoln is doing a jig.
stephenhsmith
21Jul2006
