The previously unimaginable possibility of a tactical and strategic defeat of Israel's governmental policy and military forces grows clearer with each passing day.
After more than ten days of headlines trumpeting IDF attacks on Lebanon's infrastructure, failed assassination attempts, and failure to end Hezbollah's missile attacks upon Israel, and three days of headlines proclaiming the massing of Israeli infantry and tanks in preparation for invasion, the Israelis appear to have acquired a case of the "wobblies".
It is possible that they are placing too much faith (pardon the pun) on Airpower, as countless military/political strategists have done before, as it is possible that they are justifiably reluctant to incur the amount of casualties expected from a ground offensive against an entrenched opponent, or perhaps both. And the political calculations are surely a large, but closely held, factor.
But for whatever the reason, the Israelis are rapidly coming upon the horns of a dilemma. To invade comprehensively in order to achieve their stated objective of dismantling Hezbollah's ability to attack Israel, thus risking the intervention of the Syrian armed forces, and a potential regional war with worldwide consequences, or to wait for the IAF to further degrade Hezbollah's defensive abilities, risking the world's diplomatic "referrees" "blowing the whistle" to stop the action, effectively handing Hezbollah (and all of Israel's opponents) a historic "victory".
Once again, the political calculations are powerful and unique, as the differential between the opinions and actions of the governments of Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia and those of their citizenry grows larger by the day. The concept of "Face" is not limited to the Middle East, but it has a unique power there. The Israelis have gotten themselves into a position, by their "disproportionate" and illogical use of force, whereby they lose 'face' if they are not completely victorious. A 'loss of face' and it's tangential ability to intimidate, which extends to the U.S. government by reason of it's covert, and now overt, support for Israel's actions.
Thus, in the "logic" of the Middle East, the Israelis can be expected to fully invade Southen Lebanon soon, which will force Syria to make it's own difficult decision concerning "face". And in light of the Syrian minister's statement today, that "Syrian forces will not stand idly by if Israeli forces come within 20 kilometers of Damascus", the pre-positioning/bluffing (?) has begun in earnest, emboldened perhaps by the Israeli caution/hesitancy of the past three days.
Add to the mix, the Lebanese government's assertion that the Lebanese Army will side with Hezbollah to oppose a full-scale Israeli invasion, the difficulty some Arab League governments will have in siding with Israel against the wishes of their citizens, the increasing pressure on the frail U.S.-created government in Iraq, the OIL markets, and ultimately the Iranians, supported by the Russians, and you have a recipe that is eerily reminiscent of August 1914.
World War 3 or 4, depending on how you count them? Well, that's what the "neo-cons" in D.C. and Israel have been agitating for since the "Clean Break" declaration in 1996. And after the U.S. National Security Statement of 2002 and the invasion of Iraq in March 2003, why should anyone believe that they don't mean what they say?
Take heart in the fact that since August of 1945, nuclear weapons have not been used in attack. This was on purpose. Capitalist powers are not intent upon destroying their potential ability to exploit the natural resources of the vanquished. But attacks using conventional weapons to destroy infrastructure, depose governments, and manipulate markets, are very possible, especially regarding the U.S. in relation to Iran.
But History is full of examples of "unintended/unforeseen consequences", especially from acts of war. One can easily argue that from the now 5.5 year record of the George W. Bush administration, and it's domestic "opposition", there is a dangerous dearth of government officials with foresight, prudence, and college degrees of History majors.
In the meantime, buy what Gold you can, hug your kids, store up some water and canned goods, and try not to notice all the headlines about power outages in major U.S. cities.
stephenhsmith
23July2006